Help & Methodology

Everything you need to know about how Steamer Monster works, what each signal means, and how to get the most from My Steamers.

🏇 What is a steamer?

A steamer is a horse whose odds are shortening fast — its price is dropping because a lot of money is being placed on it. When a horse opens at 10.0 in the morning and trades down to 7.0 before the race, that's a 30% drop. Something — a stable confidence tip, a form revelation, inside knowledge — has prompted serious backers to get on.

Steamers don't always win. But they represent the market's clearest signal that someone who knows something is backing this horse. Following well-selected steamers — with the right filters — is one of the most researched edges in horse racing betting.

Steamer Monster detects these moves in real time, within 5 seconds of a significant drop starting, and scores each one for signal quality before alerting.

📊 The signals explained

Price Morning Price (MP)
The Betfair best-back price captured at market open, typically around 08:00–09:00. This is your baseline — every percentage drop is calculated against this number.
A horse that opened at 8.0 and is now 5.5 has a 31% drop from MP.
Price now Current Price (CP)
The live best-back price on Betfair at the time the dashboard was last updated (every 15 seconds). Watch this column move in real time as the market reacts.
If MP is 10.0 and CP is 7.5, the horse is currently trading 25% below opening.
Movement Drop %
The percentage fall from morning price to current price. This is the primary indicator of steaming intensity. A 15% drop is a mild drift, a 30%+ drop is strong money, a 40%+ drop is exceptional — price has almost halved.
MP 12.0 → CP 8.0 = 33% drop. MP 6.0 → CP 4.5 = 25% drop.
Volume Volume Flow
Money being matched per minute at the time of detection, in pounds. This is crucial — a 30% drop with £50/min flow could be a small punter. A 30% drop with £2,000/min flow is serious money moving. Low flow moves are more likely to be noise or thin markets.
Flow £500/min during a move means roughly £8 per second is being traded on this horse.
Timing Time to Race (TTR)
Minutes until the race starts when the steamer was first detected. Moves close to post time (under 10 minutes) are generally considered more meaningful — the market has had less time to react and the move is sharper. Far-out moves (60+ minutes) often drift back before the off.
A 25% drop at TTR 5 min is more significant than the same drop at TTR 40 min.
Matched Total Matched
The total amount matched on this horse since market open (cumulative). A high matched figure alongside a big drop confirms sustained interest, not just a spike.
£50k matched on a horse at SP 8.0 is unusual and worth attention.

🧠 The confidence score

The confidence score (0–100) is our ML model's assessment of whether a price move is genuine smart money or noise. A high-confidence steamer has multiple strong signals aligning simultaneously. A low-confidence steamer might have a big drop but weak volume, or a sharp move in a very thin market.

What goes into it:

Scores of 60+ indicate a solid signal. Scores of 70+ are high-confidence moves. "Any" in My Steamers means no minimum — you'll see everything including weak signals.

Note: The confidence score is a signal strength indicator, not a win probability. A horse can have a 90 confidence score and still lose. It means the smart money move is real, not that the smart money is right.

🎛️ My Steamers — filter guide

My Steamers lets you set your own detection thresholds so you only see steamers that match your strategy. Filters are saved automatically and persist across visits.

Filter Price range
Sets a minimum and maximum morning price. Use this to focus on a specific odds bracket — e.g. only look at horses between 4.0 and 15.0 if that's where you bet.
Min 3.0 / Max 10.0 = only show steamers on horses that opened 3.0–10.0.
Filter Min drop %
Minimum percentage the price must have fallen from morning price. Higher threshold = fewer alerts, stronger moves only. 15% is the default (anything below rarely shows on the main feed anyway). Set 25%+ if you want big steamers only.
Drop 25% min: only show horses that have steamed at least a quarter of their opening price.
Filter Volume flow
Minimum money matched per minute. This is one of the most important filters — it separates real money moves from thin-market noise. £50/min is very light, £200/min is moderate, £500/min+ is serious liquidity. Set high to cut noise significantly.
Flow £500/min: only show steamers where genuine volume is backing the move.
Filter Confidence
Minimum confidence score from our ML model. "Any" shows everything. 55+ removes the weakest signals. 70+ (VIP) shows only the highest-conviction moves — fewer alerts but each one is a stronger signal.
Filter Time to race
Maximum minutes to the race start at time of detection. Use this to focus on late moves — the closer to the off, the more "informed" the move tends to be. Set 8 min if you only want sharp pre-race moves.
TTR 10 min: only show steamers detected within 10 minutes of the race.
Filter Courses
Filter to specific UK and Irish racecourses. Leave blank for all courses. Useful if you attend specific tracks, know certain tracks well, or have found particular courses more reliable for steamer following.

⚡ Starter configurations

Not sure where to start? These filter sets are good starting points for different strategies.

Big steamers only
Large drops with real volume. Fewer alerts but each one is a serious move. Good for following the market's strongest signals.
Price: Any Drop ≥ 25% Flow ≥ £200/min Conf: Any TTR: Any
High confidence (VIP-style)
ML-scored high-conviction moves only. Similar to the VIP Telegram channel strategy. Cuts noise to the bone.
Price: 3–25 Drop ≥ 15% Flow ≥ £500/min Conf ≥ 70 TTR ≤ 8 min
Close to off
Late moves only — detected within 10 minutes of race start. These tend to be the most reliable, least likely to drift back.
Price: Any Drop ≥ 15% Flow ≥ £100/min Conf: Any TTR ≤ 10 min
Each-way value
Mid-to-longer priced steamers where the each-way return is meaningful. Filters out short-priced favourites.
Price: 6–30 Drop ≥ 20% Flow ≥ £100/min Conf: Any TTR: Any

❓ Frequently asked questions

My Steamers shows nothing — why?
Either your filters are too tight for today's market, or there simply haven't been any qualifying moves yet. Try loosening the Flow or Drop thresholds first. If it's before 10am or after the last race, the feed will be empty regardless of settings.
Do steamers win more than random?
At SP, steamers typically lose money like all betting (the market prices in the information). However, backing steamers at or near the trigger price — before the market fully adjusts — can offer an edge. Quality filters (high flow, close to off, high confidence) narrow the field to where the edge is most consistent. Past performance data is available on request.
What's the difference between "All Steamers" and "My Steamers"?
All Steamers shows every detected move for today with no filter. My Steamers applies your saved profile filters — you only see horses matching your criteria. My Steamers is the page to use once you know what kind of moves you're interested in.
How is this different from the Telegram alerts?
The Telegram free channel sends alerts when our system decides a steamer is worth flagging (it applies its own quality threshold). The dashboard shows everything we detect — including moves that didn't quite make the Telegram cut. My Steamers is your own personalised version of that alert threshold.
Why does the confidence score sometimes seem low even for big drops?
A big price drop with low volume in a thin market scores lower — the model is skeptical about moves that aren't backed by real money. A 40% drop where only £20 has been matched is more likely to be a single punter or a market maker adjustment than a genuine informed move.
How often does the data update?
The streaming system detects moves every 5 seconds. The dashboard data file is written to S3 every 30 seconds and cached on CloudFront for up to 30 seconds. The dashboard polls every 15 seconds. In practice, you'll see a new steamer appear within 60–90 seconds of the move starting.
Will my filters be remembered on another device?
Currently, filters are saved in your browser's localStorage — they persist on the same device and browser but won't follow you to a new device or incognito window. Cross-device sync via account login is coming soon.
Is this free?
Yes. The live feed, All Steamers, My Steamers, and the free Telegram channel are all free with no account required. There are no ads and no affiliate links.